ABSTRACT
The US vice president JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025 will undoubtedly take its place in the history books for the next generations, while the current European leaders will keep his words in their minds with a feeling of confusion, disappointment, and frustration. Ten years ago, barely anyone could believe or even imagine that the American vice president could come to Europe to publicly shame European governments, accusing them of silencing critical voices and establishing censorship while openly expressing his support for the far-right. At the same time, the president himself demanded to sell Greenland, an autonomous and self-governing territory of Denmark, threatening to use military force. The worst nightmare of European leaders and a large part of ordinary Europeans became a reality in 2025. A good old friend you could always rely on and behind whose back you could always hide suddenly started acting like an enemy. This is a short history of the transatlantic alliance from the end of World War II until now. An alliance that once seemed unbreakable is nearly dead, even though it still has the chance to survive.
The Trump phenomenon
In February 2024, at the beginning of the electoral campaign, Donald Trump told his supporters about a conversation with the president of an unspecified NATO country, who asked him if they could count on US support and protection in case Russia attacked them. “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills”, he responded [6]. The demands to increase defense spending and skepticism towards NATO are not new and were present during the first Trump presidency [13], although it seems European governments did not take his words seriously, hoping that the Trump phenomenon is temporary and everything will work the same way as before once the new president is elected [2]. However, he is in the White House, and no matter whether someone likes it or not, Europe cannot change America, but it can change itself.
No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills
From words to action
A harsh reaction to the shocking moves of the Trump administration immediately followed. The winner of the recent German elections, Friedrich Merz, who was expected to become the country's new chancellor, stated that his main priority would be to strengthen Europe and achieve full independence from the US. With the reputation of a convinced Atlanticist, Merz underlined that Europe is now attacked from two sides, implying the recent attempt of rapprochement between the US and Russia and the dramatic change in the US policy on Ukraine. Later, he also spoke in favor of the creation of a European nuclear umbrella, calling for France and Britain to share nuclear weapons [4]. After the controversial meeting between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which ended with their public quarrel, the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said today it is clear that the free world needs a new leader, and it is up to Europeans to take this challenge [5].
However, the question of whether such loud words will lead to decisive actions and major changes in EU security and defense policies remains open. EU leaders face several obstacles on this path. Since many decisions within the EU require unanimity, attempts to create an independent system of European defense from the US could be blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, whose Eurosceptic governments maintain close ties with Russia and have ideological similarities with the new US administration on several issues.
The position of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, who is also often considered one of Trump’s allies, remains unclear. Unlike the vast majority of European leaders who explicitly supported Zelenskyy and criticized Trump, Meloni instead proposed organizing an immediate summit between the US and Europe, emphasizing that every division of the West weakens it and favors those who would like to see the decline of Western civilization [8].
At the same time, the three currently military-neutral EU members–Austria, Ireland, and Malta–could potentially be against the idea of giving the Union more competences in the defense sphere, seeing such plans as a threat to their neutral status. The rise of right-wing populist and sovereign parties across the whole continent poses another big challenge, since new national-conservative and Eurosceptic governments could be formed, increasing the number of Brussels opponents within the EU.
New military alliances
If the EU fails to reach an agreement on reforming its defense policy or if the conflict with the Trump administration escalates, including even the US potential withdrawal from NATO or a clear threat to do so, one hypothetical scenario could be the establishment of a parallel system of collective security within Europe based on the French and British nuclear umbrella. This European military alliance could be created separately from the EU and include such European countries as the UK, Norway, and Iceland, while excluding certain EU members like Hungary and Slovakia, who are likely to be reluctant to join. However, this development remains nothing but a pure hypothesis and seems implausible given that none of the European governments have expressed such intentions. The idea of a European army has been discussed since the 1950s; however, these plans were abandoned in favor of NATO. Currently, the European army is not part of the EU agenda, even though a number of European political leaders have voiced their support for the idea [7]. According to the YouGov poll conducted in 2022, among the EU member states, a joint European army has the highest level of support in Spain (64%), Lithuania (62%), and the Netherlands (61%) and the lowest in Bulgaria (39%) [12].
Key figures and facts
Many European countries, which have been enjoying a long-lasting peace for decades, are often criticized for having “weak” armies, small defense budgets, and a heavy dependence on the US in this field. However, in reality, these claims are greatly exaggerated. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasizes the paradox of 500 million Europeans, relying on 300 million Americans for protection against 140 million Russians [1]. According to the most recent census, the population of the EU is around 449 million, nearly three times higher than that of Russia [10]. Together with the UK and Norway, non-EU countries that currently cooperate closely with the Union, the total population indeed exceeds 500 million, surpassing the combined population of the US and Russia, ranking third behind only China and India. Even though the size of the population alone tells nothing about military strength, a larger population provides a larger military reserve. Furthermore, Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the European Union, one of the founding EU treaties, resembles the famous Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty: “If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power” [9].
The combined defense expenditure of EU member states is constantly growing, reaching 326 billion euros in 2024, a 30% increase from 2021 [3]. In March 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new ReArm Europe plan that is expected to mobilize around 800 billion euros of defense spending, declaring an “era of rearmament” [11]. Another important step towards the EU joint coordination of the defense field was the establishment of the first-ever defense commissioner position in 2024. This shows that the EU not only has ambitious plans and goals to increase its ability to independently defend itself but has already started working on the realization of these plans.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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